This seat is of critical importance, too, as our forecast interactive shows that Oz winning would give Republicans better than a 4-in-5 shot of capturing the Senate, while Democrats’ chances would improve to around 7 in 10 with a win here. The other toss-up race is in Pennsylvania, but Republicans here are on the defensive following the retirement of Republican Sen. The End Of Title 42 Could Be A Big Problem For Biden Harry Reid, can turn out Democratic voters, but Laxalt may come out on top thanks to frustration over inflation and the economy. Cortez Masto will hope that the vaunted electoral organization built by her predecessor, the late Democratic Sen. Still, Laxalt has about a 1-point lead in our polling average, although neither candidate has had an advantage much beyond that margin since late September. Catherine Cortez Masto, according to our forecast, which suggests neither candidate really has an advantage. Republicans’ other top pick-up opportunity is in Nevada, but that race could be a squeaker: Republican Adam Laxalt has a 51-in-100 chance of defeating Democratic Sen. 6 runoff, should neither candidate win an outright majority (there’s also a Libertarian on the ballot). Notably, this race is so close that there’s about a 1-in-5 chance it will go to a Dec. But Walker, like most other Republican candidates, may be benefiting from the more favorable Republican national environment. Walker’s chances have improved despite allegations that he encouraged and/or paid for multiple women to have abortions while campaigning on a mostly anti-abortion platform. The good news for the GOP is that it may have the upper hand here, as Republican Herschel Walker has a 63-in-100 chance of defeating Democratic Sen. Using the interactive version of the forecast, giving Georgia to either party raises its chances of winning the Senate to about 3 in 4, without knowing outcomes anywhere else. In light of this, the most important matchup may be in Georgia. The five most competitive 2022 Senate races, by their likelihood of deciding Senate control according to the FiveThirtyEight final Deluxe forecastĪnd for the most part, these are among the races most likely to decide control of the Senate - that is, be the “tipping-point” contest. That’s because the GOP needs fewer things to go right on Election Day, whereas Democrats have less room for error.ĭemocrats are defending four of the five most competitive seats Our forecast predicts that, on average, Republicans will wind up with 50.9 seats - essentially 51, which would be just enough for outright control of the chamber.Īnd if we look individually at the 35 Senate contests on the ballot, 2 we can also see how Republicans are somewhat better positioned than Democrats. Our forecast, which has trended toward Republicans in the final few weeks of the campaign, gives them an 80 percent chance of holding between 48 and 54 seats after this election. Still, if one party does have an edge, it’s the GOP. But the GOP’s fortunes have also improved markedly in the final weeks, as Democrats had about a 7-in-10 shot of controlling the Senate in late September. Considering the midterm environment and the seats that are up this cycle, it’s perhaps unsurprising that Republicans have a slightly better chance than Democrats of capturing the Senate. That isn’t much better than the probability of calling a coin-flip correctly, although the GOP may have the slightest of edges. Republicans have a 59-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, which is now frozen. As a result, a one-seat gain by Republicans would be enough to give them control, whereas Democrats need to avoid any net losses to retain their advantage.īut the fate of the Senate looks to be on a knife’s edge. The chamber is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, 1 but Democrats hold a precarious majority via the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. Just about no part of the 2022 midterms is more uncertain than the race for control of the U.S.
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